The 2024 holiday shopping season is expected to show steady growth, with the National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasting an increase of 2.5% to 3.5% in total retail sales compared to 2023. This translates to holiday spending between $979.5 billion and $989 billion for November and December. Key drivers include a healthy job market, wage growth, and resilient consumer spending patterns despite lingering economic pressures, such as inflation, and weather-related disruptions.

Key Trends to Be Aware of:

1. Shorter Shopping Season: The period between Thanksgiving and Christmas will be five days shorter than usual. This compressed timeframe may lead to more intensive marketing efforts early in the season and a stronger focus on digital channels.

2. Online Sales Surge: Online sales will play a pivotal role, with projections indicating an 8-9% increase in e-commerce activity over last year. Small businesses should enhance their online presence to capture this growth, as online purchases are expected to account for around 30% of total holiday sales.

3. Cautious but Optimistic Spending: While consumers are more measured in their purchases, personal services such as salon and wellness offerings might benefit if bundled as experiential gifts, which are gaining popularity among consumers seeking meaningful purchases.

Small businesses should prepare by focusing on customer experience, ensuring their digital operations are robust, and offering early promotions to mitigate the shorter shopping period.